Central Europe floods may be the worst since 2002
By the Climate Centre
(World Weather Attribution scientists have now said that with a global temperature 2°C higher than pre-industrial levels, climate models predict a regional increase of about 5 per cent in rainfall intensity and 50 per cent in likelihood.)
Slow-moving Storm Boris and an associated 2,000-kilometre weather front are inflicting another flood disaster on central Europe that is potentially the worst since the multinational catastrophe in 2002, when parts of large cities such such as Prague, Dresden and Vienna were submerged (IFRC press release).
The UK Met Office had last Thursday signalled “extreme rainfall” for central and southern Europe to end the week, with up to 300mm falling in some locations, or twice the average for September. “Some rivers may experience 1-in-100 year events,” the it said.
Many countries are affected, including (alphabetically) Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Romania, while National Societies across the region have been preparing and responding, or both.
Reuters reported Sunday that the floods had claimed seven lives in two days in several countries while more than 10,000 people had been evacuated in the Czech Republic; a bridge in the historic Polish town of Glucholazy, near the Czech border, had collapsed, and emergency workers in Budapest were preparing for a rising Danube river.
Polish prime Minister Donald Tusk said on X/Twitter that he had ordered preparations for the declaration of a state of natural disaster.
Romania’s president, Klaus Iohannis, told reporters: “We are again facing the effects of climate change, which are increasingly present on the European continent, with dramatic consequences.”
Saying on X/Twitter that “the needs are enormous and the situation may get worse,” the Polish Red Cross Saturday launched a local appeal “in response to the growing flood threat in southern Poland” especially (photo). “Your help can save lives,” the National Society added.
‘It is a farewell without the certainty of finding an intact home when you return’
The Czech Red Cross said it had been providing assistance in Moravia, Silesia and Eastern Bohemia since Friday, including with the preparation of evacuation centres and flagging a Czech-language version of an IFRC emergency checklist for local residents facing flood warnings.
The Austrian Red Cross spoke of “continuous rain, storms and snow in the mountains” for days, describing the situation in the region of the Kamp river, a tributary of the Danube in Lower Austria, as “catastrophic”.
The National Society quoted its rescue services commander, Gerry Foitik, as saying: “We fear that the same people who were affected by the flood of the century in 2002 will be left with nothing again.
“Around 3,000 people have to leave their houses and apartments to reach safety. It is a farewell without the certainty of finding an intact home when you return. These people are reminded of terrible memories and are afraid.
“As the Red Cross, we stand by those affected and do everything we can to help.”
Climate Centre science lead Liz Stephens said Friday: “Forecast models have been indicating an increased likelihood of extremely heavy rainfall in these areas of central Europe for many days, helping government agencies and local agencies to prepare.
“The flooding looks set to be the worst in the region since 2002. Lessons will have been learned from previous big European floods, but forecasts for some locations are for flooding of unprecedented magnitude, and history tells us that people are often surprised by the seemingly unimaginable consequences of such events.
“In this part of Europe, climate change is known to be playing a role in increasing the risk of flooding, and IPCC reports have indicated that we have already observed an upward trend in heavy rainfall, surface water, and river flooding, and climate models show high confidence of further increases into the future.”
In its most recent relevant study, of the July 2021 floods in Western Europe, the World Weather Attribution group of scientists concluded with “high confidence that human-induced climate change has increased the likelihood and intensity of such an event to occur and these changes will continue in a rapidly warming climate.”
(Translations in this article are by the Climate Centre.)
Southern Poland this weekend, where the Red Cross spoke of “enormous needs” after another regionwide European flood disaster firmly linked to climate change. (Photo: Polish Red Cross)