DRR Day: Middle East and North Africa get a jump on extreme weather with anticipatory action

By the IFRC

(This story appeared first on Friday on the IFRC website.)

As natural hazards, pandemics, and other crises become increasingly frequent, Red Cross and Red Crescent societies are getting a jump start on emergencies through anticipatory action. Some National Societies in the Middle East and North Africa region are leading the way.

As conflict in the Middle East escalates, Lebanon has been at the top of the news as the latest humanitarian crisis to unfold in an already complex region. The Lebanese Red Cross has been at the forefront of emergency response.

For those whose job is to save lives during crisis, however, it’s also critical to keep an eye on what might be coming next. With winter coming, that means that there may be additional layers of suffering to address as temperatures drop and people – some displaced by the escalation in hostilities – face cold snaps and even snowstorms.

This is why proactive approaches such as anticipatory action – beginning with response efforts based on forecasts, before weather events unfold – can be so critical. It not only helps to save lives, but it also helps emergency responders efficiently allocate resources among a range of dire humanitarian needs.

‘Winter storms’

It begins with monitoring the warning signs, such as weather forecasts or signs of disease outbreaks, to identify when a crisis might occur. Once the signs are detected, National Societies create detailed plans that outline what actions to take when the crisis does occur.

“In Lebanon, anticipatory action has proven effective, especially during winter storms,” says Kassem Chaalan, Disaster Risk Reduction Director at the Lebanese Red Cross. “Ahead of a severe winter season with expected heavy snowfall in early 2024, the Lebanese Red Cross and partners took proactive measures.”  

“We used weather forecasts to alert communities allowing for early warnings to be issued to vulnerable communities,” he adds. “Moreover, we sent information and guidance to local communities on how to prepare for the storm, including advice on safeguarding their homes and ensuring personal safety.”

This early action significantly reduced the negative impact of winter storms, saving lives and minimizing economic losses. The Lebanese Red Cross employed a similar approach during times of extreme heat as well.

“This was also done during the hot summer season; actionable messages were disseminated during heat waves events in urban settings,” Chaalan says.

In Yemen, floods have been a regular occurrence during the past few years, devastating lives and livelihoods, and compounding an already dire situation.

To reduce flood risks and protect lives, the Yemen Red Crescent Society is piloting an anticipatory action programme in Sana’a and Hadramout governorates, in coordination with meteorological and civil defence authorities, as well as relevant humanitarian organizations at both national and regional levels.

The programme involves a simplified early action protocol (SEAP), which is the first to be developed in the IFRC’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

In Yemen, an SEAP is activated when heavy rainfall is forecast. The protocol includes simplified plans that allow the Yemen Red Crescent Society to act immediately and effectively before floods occur, therefore preparing communities for worst-case scenarios. 

Overall safety

Lebanon and Yemen are two of many countries in the MENA region that have unique vulnerabilities and challenges; these countries face a variety of crises, including natural disasters, climate change effects like wildfires, heatwaves and droughts, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.

These factors contribute to high levels of humanitarian needs, with many communities experiencing displacement and instability. This is where anticipatory action proves useful.

For that reason, National Societies in the MENA region came together recently in Dubai during what was called the 1st MENA Dialogue Platform to establish a road map for anticipatory action in the region.

“The MENA Dialogue Platform has been influential in enhancing our networking and collaboration,” adds Chaalan. “It allowed us at the Lebanese Red Cross to increase valuable connections with other humanitarian organizations, government agencies, and international partners, fostering essential collaborative efforts and information exchange for more effective crisis responses.

“We gained crucial insights into best practices and innovative approaches from across the MENA region. Also, we advocated for and created linkages between different communities of practice, enhancing complementarity and increasing our collective impact. Given the rising frequency of hazards, this platform has underscored the importance of continuous learnings.”

By addressing vulnerabilities in advance, anticipatory action enhances the overall safety and well-being of communities, making it an essential strategy for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction.

With winter coming, people displaced by the recent escalation in hostilities face cold snaps and even snowstorms. Ahead of expected heavy snowfall last winter, for example, the Lebanese Red Cross and partners took proactive measures, as here in this file photo, in which the Norwegian Red Cross and IFRC country representation assisted the National Society with mountain-rescue training. (Library photo: Lebanese Red Cross via IFRC)