Forecasting (and acting on) disease threats: guidance for National Societies

By the Climate Centre

The Red Cross Red Crescent Working Group on Anticipatory Action and Health last month published a working paper to guide National Societies planning to engage in early action for disease outbreaks and epidemics.

It details three main approaches to triggering such early interventions: using weather forecasts, surveillance data, or models for the risk of disease outbreak, and it provides guidance to support discussions on which is most feasible.

Examples of these three approaches include, respectively, a 2019 early action protocol for cyclones in Mozambique that aims to prevent water-borne illness through the distribution of purification tablets, amongst other early actions; it was activated in late December 2020 ahead of Tropical Storm Chalane.

Secondly, EAPs for cholera outbreaks using surveillance data and known risk-factors for cholera are currently being developed by National Societies in several countries where the disease is endemic.

Thirdly, data-driven climate-informed early warning models for infectious diseases such as dengue fever were developed in Barbados in partnership with the government by the French Red Cross, the Climate Centre, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

The Climate Centre’s Tilly Alcayna, one of the joint authors of the brief, said today: “We can identify climatic and environmental conditions that may be conducive to disease.

“This knowledge can then be used to inform decisions about implementing actions to contain an outbreak, and to reduces delays in response via the release of pre-arranged advance funding.

“Next year we hope to see some of the first protocols for infectious disease outbreaks validated and ready for activation.”

Seasonality

Climate variables like temperature, precipitation and humidity have a strong influence on some diseases typically referred to as climate-sensitive, the brief notes.

Such climate-sensitive infectious diseases tend to show strong seasonality and year to year variation, which may correlate with climatic anomalies and extreme weather events or global climate phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

The new brief strongly recommends that, from the outset, anticipatory action for epidemics or other natural hazards alike is developed with the relevant government agencies.

In an annex it includes a reference list of climate-sensitive infectious diseases, and reviews the scientific literature on how climate factors may influence disease transmission.

The working group, established under the Anticipation Hub, includes the IFRC, the German Red Cross and the Climate Centre and promotes Movement work on anticipating and preventing health impacts. The Interagency Working Group on Anticipatory Action and Health jointly led by UNOCHA, MSF and the Climate Centre.

An early action protocol for cyclones in Mozambique that aims to prevent water-borne illness through distribution of purification tablets was activated in late December 2020 ahead of Tropical Storm Chalane, which preceded Cyclone Eloise (pictured) in the 2020–21 season. (File photo: CVM via IFRC)