Ashley, Bert, Conall, Darragh: UK battered by successive winter storms
By the Climate Centre
(A British Red Cross survey published this week shows only two in five people believe their community is prepared for a flood, while around half UK adults say they know people in their neighbourhood who may not be able to evacuate in a flood without assistance; one in six say their home has been flooded in the past, while two in five living in a high-risk area say they had not heard of, or did not know how to sign up for, flood warnings.)
The UK has been battered by three severe storms in as many weeks, with the latest, Storm Darragh, leaving tens of thousands of people without power on Monday morning.
In late November, heavy rainfall from Storm Bert saw “significant river and surface-water flooding across much of England”, the Environment Agency said, quickly followed by Storm Conall causing localized floods in the south and east of the country.
The first named storm of the current season, Ashley, described by the Met Office as a powerful although not exceptional Atlantic autumn storm, brought wet and windy weather to the UK in late October, with the strongest winds across north-western areas.
British Red Cross volunteers have been out and about in the worst-hit areas all but continuously since the last week of November, when Bert arrived.
The National Society advised the public through social media to keep an eye on Met Office alerts and local news, and linked to its guidance on how to stay safe during storms, power cuts and floods.
In Pontypridd, Wales, for example, British Red Cross staff and volunteers (photo) carried out welfare checks and provided people with essential supplies after Storm Bert, even as Storm Conall approached landfall; impacts from that storm were also felt in Ireland and France.
Wetter winters, drier summers
Climate Centre science lead, Liz Stephens, who is based at Reading University, said today: “Climate change has been linked to an observed increase in winter rainfall in the UK, with this trend set to continue.
“However, scientists are less confident in how climate change is affecting the frequency and wind intensity of storms impacting the UK.”
The latest State of the UK Climate report indicates the UK has become wetter over the last few decades, although with significant annual variation: 2011–20 was 9 per cent wetter than 1961–90, for example.
The British Met Office says coastal flooding from storms is expected to increase under climate change due to rising sea-levels, worsening the impacts of storm surges.
“Without adaptation, there is a risk [relatively] weaker storms could lead to coastal flooding where they wouldn’t have in the past,” the Met Office adds.
Climate projections indicate that, on average, winters will continue to become wetter and summers drier, though natural variability means some individual years won’t follow the trend; summer rainfall is also likely be more intense than at present.
Red Cross staff and volunteers in Wales carried out welfare checks and provided people with essential supplies after Storm Bert, even as Storm Conall approached landfall. (Photo: British Red Cross)