United in Science report 2024: huge progress, but gaps remain

By the Climate Centre

The impacts of climate change and hazardous weather are reversing development gains and threatening the well-being of people and planet, according to this year’s United in Science report coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization and published today.

“The science is clear. We are far off track from achieving vital climate goals,” a WMO press release says. Under current policies, there is a two-thirds likelihood of the Earth warming by 3°C this century, it adds. But there are grounds for hope.

The multi-agency United in Science report – to which the IFRC is a contributing partner – explores how natural and social science, technology and innovation enhance our understanding of the Earth’s systems and could be game changers for adaptation, risk reduction and development.

‘Once-in-a-generation opportunity’

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said: “Artificial intelligence and machine learning have emerged as potentially transformative technologies that are revolutionizing weather forecasting and can make it faster, cheaper and more accessible.

Science and technology alone were not enough to address global challenges, but “[c]utting-edge satellite technologies and virtual realities that bridge the physical and digital worlds are opening new frontiers in, for instance, land and water management.”

“However, science and technology alone are not enough to address global challenges such as climate change and sustainable development alone. In an increasingly complex world, we must embrace diverse knowledge, experiences and perspectives to co-create solutions together,” she said.

The United Nations Summit of the Future – which starts on Monday in New York and where the ICRC is an observer – provides a “once-in-a-generation opportunity to revitalize and reboot our collective commitment to the global goals,” says the report.

Rapid progress in AI and machine learning can make accurate weather modelling faster, cheaper and more accessible to lower-income countries with limited computational capacities, adds the report, which was compiled by a consortium of UN agencies, meteorological organizations and scientific and research bodies.

But difficulties remain centred on the limited quality of data, and variables that are harder to predict related to the ocean, the land surface, the cryosphere and the carbon cycle; global governance is needed to ensure both AI and machine learning serve the common good.

Responding to the report today, Climate Centre science lead Liz Stephens agreed AI-based forecasts and improved satellite monitoring had huge potential, “but we must continue to advocate for their development to predict and prepare for the types of hazardous weather that are leading to the largest humanitarian impacts.

“We also know from experience that this must be a collaborative endeavour, so that the right people receive the right information at the right time.”

‘Uncertain future’

Another Climate Centre scientist, Andrew Kruczkiewicz, a lecturer at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University in New York, adds: “The ‘training’ of AI and machine-learning models requires data, and that data often under-represents the most vulnerable whom the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement is mandated to support.

“The humanitarian sector broadly should continue to advocate for transparency about who benefits from these exciting innovations, and how exactly impacts from climate and weather extremes will decrease so that the most at-risk populations can anticipate better, recover faster, and thrive in an increasingly uncertain future.”

Despite some limitations and gaps, “leveraging public-private partnerships, innovations in space-based Earth observations can be used to enhance weather, climate, water and related environmental applications,” says United in Science.

Again, it adds, progress has been made and more than half of the world’s countries now report having multi-hazard early warning systems that significantly reduce disaster-related mortality, but “significant gaps remain”.

The annual United in Science report updates on developments in weather, climate, water, environmental and social science. Contributing partners this year include the WMO itself and several UN agencies, the UK Met Office UK, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, and the IFRC.

A science class at the Zimbabwe Red Cross High School, which was moving to a newly-built lab thanks to an IFRC seed grant. The school opened in 2015 to provide quality education to secondary students, including young people who have lost family members to AIDS. (File photo: Corrie Butler/IFRC)