Red Cross/ Red Crescent Climate Centre

Global, Pacific and Asia La Niña updates 20 October 2011

25/10/2011 - by IRI/Climate Centre

Unfortunately, La Niña conditions re-appeared early August. This October update is largely (but not entirely) a confirmation of the picture from last month. Another noteworthy region is East Africa, where the signals about potential (low-medium confidence) below-normal rainfall are being confirmed. This is contrary to the September GHACOF (regional outlook forum), which suggested above-normal rainfall (based on forecasts prepared before the La Niña fully reappeared). Given that it is only low-medium confidence, we have not prepared a separate regional update (so more information is only included in the global update attached), but it's worth taking note in light of the current conditions -- at least this region should not be confident that good rains will come and ameliorate the food security challenges. Regularly monitoring shorter term forecasts is also recommended if your region is likely to be affected by La Niña.
More information on the likelihood of regional impacts of La Niña can be found in the documents below:

  1. Global
  2. Asia
  3. Pacific